ARI @ NYG – Week 4 2026
ARI
NYG
ARI
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
NYG
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NYG 68%Projected margin: -4.8
NYG
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-4.8
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.075
-0.018Offense EPA / play+0.012
+0.088Defense EPA / play+0.087
43.0%Offense success %42.1%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors NYG (B-tier, 68% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
NYG is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
NYG goes for it on 4th down 31% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
Net-positive signal profile for NYG. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | NYG market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
J.Brissett3366 yd · 23 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
M.Carter333 yd · 1 TD
E.Demercado312 yd · 0 TD
Z.Knight269 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride126 rec · 1239 yd · 11 TD
Mi.Wilson78 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
M.Harrison41 rec · 608 yd · 4 TD
E.Higgins30 rec · 301 yd · 0 TD
VS
3,366PASSyds2,272
914RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@ARIW2 2023 | NYG 31, ARI 28 | NYG | W |
| ARI@NYGW14 2020 | ARI 26, NYG 7 | NYG | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs NYG
Who is favored in Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants?
Our model takes New York Giants at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 4.8. The market has NYG at -7.0.
When do the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants game?
New York Giants, 31-28 in Week 2 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Arizona Cardinals or the New York Giants?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New York Giants: ARI -0.107 against NYG -0.075.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
