JAX @ CIN – Week 4 2026
JAX
CIN
JAX
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 65%Projected margin: -3.1
JAX
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-3.1
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.138
+0.030Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.105Defense EPA / play+0.130
44.4%Offense success %45.5%
41.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
JAX is our C-tier play in JAX @ CIN (Week 4, 2026). The model assigns 65.0% confidence and projects JAX by 3.1. Market spread sits at JAX +2.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
B.Strange46 rec · 540 yd · 3 TD
J.Meyers42 rec · 483 yd · 3 TD
VS
4,007PASSyds1,809
1,773RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CINW2 2025 | JAX 27, CIN 31 | CIN | W |
| CIN@JAXW13 2023 | CIN 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@CINW4 2021 | JAX 21, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2020 | JAX 25, CIN 33 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs CIN
Who is favored in Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals?
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 65% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.1. The market has JAX at +2.5.
When do the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals game?
Cincinnati Bengals, 27-31 in Week 2 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Cincinnati Bengals?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against CIN -0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
