Jaguars vs Bengals – Week 4 2026
JAX
CIN
JAX
AWAY
22@17
JAX BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: JAX 65%Our line: JAX -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.239Net EPA / play+0.102
+0.151 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (10)
-0.088 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.030 (13)
46.9% (9)Offense success %47.1% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 5.2. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CINW2 2025 | JAX 27, CIN 31 | CIN | W |
| CIN@JAXW13 2023 | CIN 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@CINW4 2021 | JAX 21, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2020 | JAX 25, CIN 33 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs CIN
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 5.2. The market has JAX at +2.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 22, CIN 17. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +2.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 3.7 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, JAX 27, CIN 31 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.239 against CIN +0.102.
