NYJ @ CHI – Week 4 2026
NYJ
CHI
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
CHI
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: CHI 80%Projected margin: -9.7
CHI
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
-9.7
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.274Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.127Offense EPA / play+0.080
+0.147Defense EPA / play+0.018
40.7%Offense success %45.8%
45.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on CHI at 80% confidence.
EPA EDGE
CHI generates 0.080 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
CHI is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
RED ZONE
CHI converts 82% in the red zone vs 65% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
CHI scores 1.9 points per drive vs 1.0 for NYJ. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.7-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in CHI's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD
J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD
I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD
M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD
B.Hall36 rec · 350 yd · 1 TD
A.Mitchell24 rec · 301 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,259PASSyds3,942
1,684RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@NYJW12 2022 | CHI 10, NYJ 31 | NYJ | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs CHI
Who is favored in New York Jets at Chicago Bears?
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CHI by 9.7. The market has CHI at -8.5.
When do the New York Jets and Chicago Bears play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New York Jets vs Chicago Bears game?
New York Jets, 10-31 in Week 12 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the New York Jets or the Chicago Bears?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: NYJ -0.274 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
