Jets vs Bears – Week 4 2026
NYJ
CHI
NYJ
AWAY
12@23
CHI BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Jets, 6 Bears.
A midweek injury update moved the Bears from 79% to 78%.
Model confidence: CHI 78%Our line: CHI -10.2
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.037Net EPA / play+0.008
-0.025 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.023 (12)
-0.062 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (20)
42.8% (16)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 10.2. Actual: 11 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@NYJW12 2022 | CHI 10, NYJ 31 | NYJ | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CHI by 10.2. The market has CHI at -3.5.
Chicago Bears won, NYJ 12, CHI 23. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -3.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the New York Jets were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 2.3 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, CHI 10, NYJ 31 in Week 12 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New York Jets: NYJ +0.037 against CHI +0.008.
