NYG @ ARI – Week 2 2023
NYG
ARI
NYG
AWAY
31@28
NYG BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: NYG 62%Our line: NYG -4.2
NYG
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.2
OUR LINE
-164
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.155Net EPA / play-0.157
-0.174Offense EPA / play-0.071
-0.019Defense EPA / play+0.085
37.9%Offense success %40.5%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYG by 4.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -225 | +185 |
| Our fair price | -164 | +164 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYG -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.49
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for NYG. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
133.2 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Tyrod Taylor1341 yd · 5 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley962 yd · 6 TD
Daniel Jones206 yd · 1 TD
Tyrod Taylor197 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton50 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
Darren Waller52 rec · 552 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@NYGW14 2020 | ARI 26, NYG 7 | NYG | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Giants at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 4.2. The market has NYG at -5.0.
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 26, NYG 7 in Week 14 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.155 against ARI -0.157.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
