SF @ LA – Week 2 2023
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
30@23
SF BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: SF 75%Our line: SF -9.0
SF
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.0
OUR LINE
-294
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.255Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.174Offense EPA / play+0.039
-0.082Defense EPA / play-0.009
51.1%Offense success %44.7%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 9.0. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -340 | +270 |
| Our fair price | -294 | +294 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
391.3 SEASON PPR
Brock Purdy
QB
295.6 SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
249.2 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Brock Purdy4280 yd · 31 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Christian McCaffrey1459 yd · 14 TD
Elijah Mitchell281 yd · 2 TD
Deebo Samuel Sr.225 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk75 rec · 1342 yd · 7 TD
George Kittle65 rec · 1020 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
| LA@SFW18 2023 | LA 21, SF 20 | SF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 9.0. The market has SF at -7.5.
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 42, SF 26 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against LA +0.048.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
