49ers vs Rams – Week 2 2023
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
30@23
SF BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 30, Los Angeles Rams 23.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 75%Our line: SF -9.0
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -9.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
75%
SF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
75%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
| SOURCE | SF | LA | SF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -340 |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.255Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.174 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.039 (9)
-0.082 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (22)
51.1% (1)Offense success %44.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 9.0. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs LA
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 9.0. The market has SF at -7.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 30, LA 23. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -7.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 2, the San Francisco 49ers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against LA +0.048.
