2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ HOU – Week 2 2023
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
31@20
IND +11
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 59%Projected margin: 0.8
HOU
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
0.8
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but IND won. Projected margin was 0.8 -- the model overestimated by 11.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -110 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
169.6SEASON PPR
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES