Colts vs Texans – Week 2 2023
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
31@20
IND BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 31, Houston Texans 20.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 59%Our line: HOU -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
HOU · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
50%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SOURCE | IND | HOU | HOU WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -110 | -110 | 50.0% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.019Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.035 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (15)
-0.017 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (13)
40.8% (24)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but IND won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 14.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW3 2026 | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU | L |
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 3.1. The market has HOU at +1.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 31, HOU 20. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at +1.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 2, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, HOU 17, IND 19 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: IND -0.019 against HOU +0.014.
