IND @ HOU – Week 2 2023
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
31@20
IND BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 59%Our line: HOU -3.1
HOU
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-144
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.019Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.035Offense EPA / play-0.028
-0.017Defense EPA / play-0.043
40.8%Offense success %40.9%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but IND won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 14.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -110 | -110 |
| Our fair price | +144 | -144 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
50%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2 SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
169.6 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Zack Moss794 yd · 5 TD
Jonathan Taylor741 yd · 7 TD
Trey Sermon160 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman109 rec · 1152 yd · 4 TD
Josh Downs68 rec · 771 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 3.1. The market has HOU at +1.0.
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, IND 30, HOU 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: IND -0.019 against HOU +0.014.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
