Jets vs Cowboys – Week 2 2023
NYJ
DAL
NYJ
AWAY
10@30
DAL BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 10, Dallas Cowboys 30.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 76%Our line: DAL -9.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -9.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
76%
DAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
77%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
| SOURCE | NYJ | DAL | DAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +300 |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.133Net EPA / play+0.220
-0.252 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.106 (3)
-0.119 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.114 (4)
35.0% (32)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 9.6. Actual: 20. Off by 10.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYJW5 2025 | DAL 37, NYJ 22 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 9.6. The market has DAL at -8.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, NYJ 10, DAL 30. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -8.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 2, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 37, NYJ 22 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: NYJ -0.133 against DAL +0.220.
