Bears vs Buccaneers – Week 2 2023
CHI
TB
CHI
AWAY
17@27
TB BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 3 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 79%Our line: TB -11.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -11.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
79%
TB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
55%
DIFFERENCE
+24%
| SOURCE | CHI | TB | TB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.007Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.049 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (14)
-0.042 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.024 (18)
41.8% (18)Offense success %39.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 11.0. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TBW7 2021 | CHI 3, TB 38 | TB | W |
| TB@CHIW5 2020 | TB 19, CHI 20 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 11.0. The market has TB at -2.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, CHI 17, TB 27. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 2, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CHI 3, TB 38 in Week 7 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CHI -0.007 against TB +0.007.
