CHI @ TB – Week 2 2023
CHI
TB
CHI
AWAY
17@27
TB BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 79%Our line: TB -11.0
TB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-11.0
OUR LINE
-381
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.007Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.049Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.042Defense EPA / play-0.024
41.8%Offense success %39.6%
41.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 11.0. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -135 |
| Our fair price | +381 | -381 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
79%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
+24%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DJ Moore
WR
286.5 SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
230.2 SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
181.1 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields2562 yd · 16 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Justin Fields657 yd · 4 TD
Khalil Herbert611 yd · 2 TD
D'Onta Foreman425 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore96 rec · 1364 yd · 8 TD
Cole Kmet73 rec · 719 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TBW7 2021 | CHI 3, TB 38 | TB | W |
| TB@CHIW5 2020 | TB 19, CHI 20 | TB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 11.0. The market has TB at -2.5.
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CHI 3, TB 38 in Week 7 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CHI -0.007 against TB +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
