CHI @ TB – Week 7 2021
CHI
TB
CHI
AWAY
3@38
TB BY 35
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 64%Our line: TB -4.9
TB
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.9
OUR LINE
-179
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.127Net EPA / play+0.217
-0.100Offense EPA / play+0.137
+0.026Defense EPA / play-0.080
41.2%Offense success %49.4%
44.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 35. Off by 30.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +501 | -644 |
| Our fair price | +179 | -179 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
84%
DIFFERENCE
-20%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7 SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0 SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
126.8 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields1870 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery849 yd · 7 TD
Khalil Herbert433 yd · 2 TD
Justin Fields420 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Darnell Mooney81 rec · 1055 yd · 4 TD
Cole Kmet60 rec · 612 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TBW2 2023 | CHI 17, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@CHIW5 2020 | TB 19, CHI 20 | TB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 4.9. The market has TB at -12.5.
The model projects 48.3 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CHI 17, TB 27 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CHI -0.127 against TB +0.217.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
