2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ TB – Week 7 2021
CHI
TB
CHI
AWAY
3@38
TB +35
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 64%Projected margin: 6.6
TB
PICK SIDE
-12.5
SPREAD
6.6
PROJ MARGIN
-604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.6. Actual: 35. Off by 28.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -644 | Won · +$0.17 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
126.8SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TBW2 2023 | CHI 17, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@CHIW5 2020 | TB 19, CHI 20 | TB | L |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES