Bears vs Buccaneers – Week 7 2021
CHI
TB
CHI
AWAY
3@38
TB BY 35
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 3, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bears, 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 64%Our line: TB -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -4.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.127Net EPA / play+0.217
-0.100 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.137 (2)
+0.026 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.080 (4)
41.2% (26)Offense success %49.4% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 35. Off by 30.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
219.7 SEASON PPR
195.0 SEASON PPR
126.8 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TBW2 2023 | CHI 17, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@CHIW5 2020 | TB 19, CHI 20 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 4.9. The market has TB at -12.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, CHI 3, TB 38. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -12.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 7, the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 1.3 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CHI 17, TB 27 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CHI -0.127 against TB +0.217.
