Buccaneers vs Bears – Week 5 2020
TB
CHI
TB
AWAY
19@20
CHI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19, Chicago Bears 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 2 Bears.
Model confidence: TB 52%Our line: TB -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -0.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.170Net EPA / play-0.033
+0.119 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (24)
-0.051 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (10)
45.9% (15)Offense success %43.6% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but CHI won. Projected margin was 0.6, the model overestimated by 1.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6 SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4633 yd · 40 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Ronald Jones978 yd · 7 TD
Leonard Fournette367 yd · 6 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn109 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans70 rec · 1006 yd · 13 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TBW2 2023 | CHI 17, TB 27 | TB | W |
| CHI@TBW7 2021 | CHI 3, TB 38 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CHI
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 0.6. The market has TB at -3.5.
Chicago Bears won, TB 19, CHI 20. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 2.1 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CHI 17, TB 27 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.170 against CHI -0.033.
