2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ CHI – Week 5 2020
TB
CHI
TB
AWAY
19@20
CHI +1
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 52%Projected margin: -1.8
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-1.8
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but CHI won. Projected margin was 1.8 -- the model overestimated by 2.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -184 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
No noteworthy trends
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0SEASON PPR
CHI
David Montgomery
RB
264.8SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TBW2 2023 | CHI 17, TB 27 | TB | W |
| CHI@TBW7 2021 | CHI 3, TB 38 | TB | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES