Bills vs Titans – Week 5 2020
BUF
TEN
BUF
AWAY
16@42
TEN BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 16, Tennessee Titans 42.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills.
Model confidence: TEN 53%Our line: TEN -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -0.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.147Net EPA / play+0.053
+0.164 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.171 (3)
+0.017 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.117 (28)
50.2% (2)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 0.8. Actual: 26. Off by 25.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 29.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BUFW7 2024 | TEN 10, BUF 34 | BUF | W |
| TEN@BUFW2 2022 | TEN 7, BUF 41 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TENW6 2021 | BUF 31, TEN 34 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 0.8. The market has TEN at +3.0.
Tennessee Titans won, BUF 16, TEN 42. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at +3.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 5, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.5, 3.5 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, TUE 7:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TEN 10, BUF 34 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.147 against TEN +0.053.
