2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ TEN – Week 5 2020
BUF
TEN
BUF
AWAY
16@42
TEN +26
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TEN 53%Projected margin: 1.0
TEN
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
1.0
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 1.0. Actual: 26. Off by 25.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 29.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +150 | Won · +$1.54 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
396.1SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
328.6SEASON PPR
Cole Beasley
WR
207.5SEASON PPR
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
344.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
333.1SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BUFW7 2024 | TEN 10, BUF 34 | BUF | W |
| TEN@BUFW2 2022 | TEN 7, BUF 41 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TENW6 2021 | BUF 31, TEN 34 | BUF | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES