Bengals vs Ravens – Week 5 2020
CIN
BAL
CIN
AWAY
3@27
BAL BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 3, Baltimore Ravens 27.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 72%Our line: BAL -8.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -8.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.180
-0.049 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.120 (5)
+0.092 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (5)
43.6% (23)Offense success %45.8% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 8.0. Actual: 24. Off by 16.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 72% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BAL by 8.0. The market has BAL at -12.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, CIN 3, BAL 27. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -12.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 5, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.6 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: CIN -0.141 against BAL +0.180.
