BAL @ CIN – Week 15 2025
BAL
CIN
BAL
AWAY
24@0
BAL BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 62%Our line: BAL -4.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.0
OUR LINE
-160
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.010Net EPA / play-0.138
+0.034Offense EPA / play-0.009
+0.024Defense EPA / play+0.130
44.6%Offense success %45.5%
44.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 24. Off by 20.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
COLD GAME
10°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -162 | +136 |
| Our fair price | -160 | +160 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
10°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5 SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3 SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson2549 yd · 21 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1595 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson349 yd · 2 TD
K.Mitchell341 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers86 rec · 1211 yd · 5 TD
M.Andrews48 rec · 422 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW2 2023 | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.0. The market has BAL at -2.5.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 51.5.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 32, BAL 14 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against CIN -0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
