Packers vs Broncos – Week 15 2025
GB
DEN
GB
AWAY
26@34
DEN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 26, Denver Broncos 34.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Packers, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.082Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.115 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.050 (10)
+0.033 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (6)
47.7% (5)Offense success %44.2% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 8. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.9. The market has DEN at +1.5.
Denver Broncos won, GB 26, DEN 34. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at +1.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 15, the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 4.1 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, GB 17, DEN 19 in Week 7 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: GB +0.082 against DEN +0.138.
