2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ DEN – Week 7 2023
GB
DEN
GB
AWAY
17@19
DEN +2
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 70%Projected margin: -4.4
GB
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-4.4
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but DEN won. Projected margin was 4.4 -- the model overestimated by 6.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -102 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
GB
Jordan Love
QB
319.1SEASON PPR
Jayden Reed
WR
217.2SEASON PPR
Romeo Doubs
WR
174.4SEASON PPR
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DENW15 2025 | GB 26, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES