2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ NE – Week 7 2023
BUF
NE
BUF
AWAY
25@29
NE +4
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 78%Projected margin: -8.6
BUF
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-8.6
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but NE won. Projected margin was 8.6 -- the model overestimated by 12.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -395 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
392.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
273.8SEASON PPR
James Cook
RB
232.7SEASON PPR
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5SEASON PPR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
145.7SEASON PPR
Hunter Henry
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES