Bills vs Patriots – Week 7 2023
BUF
NE
BUF
AWAY
25@29
NE BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 25, New England Patriots 29.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 3 Patriots.
Model confidence: BUF 78%Our line: BUF -10.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -10.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.182Net EPA / play-0.136
+0.108 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.191 (31)
-0.074 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.055 (12)
49.0% (2)Offense success %38.9% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but NE won. Projected margin was 10.4, the model overestimated by 14.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NE
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 10.4. The market has BUF at -7.5.
New England Patriots won, BUF 25, NE 29. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 7, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 4.6 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.182 against NE -0.136.
