MIA @ PHI – Week 7 2023
MIA
PHI
MIA
AWAY
17@31
PHI BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 59%Our line: PHI -3.0
PHI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-142
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.005
+0.097Offense EPA / play+0.054
-0.039Defense EPA / play+0.049
47.2%Offense success %45.9%
42.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 14. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 |
| Our fair price | +142 | -142 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4 SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4 SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
RB
267.7 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa4624 yd · 29 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert1012 yd · 18 TD
De'Von Achane800 yd · 8 TD
Jeff Wilson188 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1799 yd · 13 TD
Jaylen Waddle72 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.0. The market has PHI at -3.0.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 52.0.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.136 against PHI +0.005.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
