Dolphins vs Eagles – Week 7 2023
MIA
PHI
MIA
AWAY
17@31
PHI BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 17, Philadelphia Eagles 31.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 2 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 59%Our line: PHI -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -3.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.005
+0.097 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.054 (8)
-0.039 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.049 (29)
47.2% (5)Offense success %45.9% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 14. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.0. The market has PHI at -3.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, MIA 17, PHI 31. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -3.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 6.4 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.136 against PHI +0.005.
