Steelers vs Rams – Week 7 2023
PIT
LA
PIT
AWAY
24@17
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Los Angeles Rams 17.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers, 2 Rams.
Model confidence: PIT 63%Our line: PIT -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -4.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.013Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.073 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.039 (9)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (22)
42.0% (17)Offense success %44.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 4.6. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2070 yd · 6 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs LA
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.6. The market has PIT at +3.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 24, LA 17. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +3.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 7, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 1.6 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: PIT -0.013 against LA +0.048.
