2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ BAL – Week 7 2023
DET
BAL
DET
AWAY
6@38
BAL +32
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 63%Projected margin: -1.5
DET
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but BAL won. Projected margin was 1.5 -- the model overestimated by 33.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +136 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
330.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
289.1SEASON PPR
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
242.1SEASON PPR
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@BALW3 2025 | DET 38, BAL 30 | DET | W |
| BAL@DETW3 2021 | BAL 19, DET 17 | BAL | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES