Lions vs Ravens – Week 7 2023
DET
BAL
DET
AWAY
6@38
BAL BY 32
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 6, Baltimore Ravens 38.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: DET 63%Our line: DET -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DET +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.093Net EPA / play+0.215
+0.064 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.066 (5)
-0.029 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.149 (2)
46.1% (6)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but BAL won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 36.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@BALW3 2025 | DET 38, BAL 30 | DET | W |
| BAL@DETW3 2021 | BAL 19, DET 17 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs BAL
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.5. The market has DET at +3.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, DET 6, BAL 38. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at +3.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 2.0 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 38, BAL 30 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: DET +0.093 against BAL +0.215.
