LV @ CHI – Week 7 2023
LV
CHI
LV
AWAY
12@30
CHI BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: LV 71%Our line: LV -7.7
LV
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.7
OUR LINE
-250
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.097Offense EPA / play-0.049
-0.060Defense EPA / play-0.042
41.2%Offense success %41.8%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CHI won. Projected margin was 7.7, the model overestimated by 25.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -142 | +120 |
| Our fair price | -250 | +250 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LV -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for LV. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
CHI
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6 SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
181.1 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Aidan O'Connell2218 yd · 12 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Josh Jacobs805 yd · 6 TD
Zamir White451 yd · 1 TD
Ameer Abdullah89 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Davante Adams103 rec · 1144 yd · 8 TD
Jakobi Meyers71 rec · 807 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@LVW4 2025 | CHI 25, LV 24 | LV | L |
| CHI@LVW5 2021 | CHI 20, LV 9 | LV | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 7.7. The market has LV at -2.5.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 38.5.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 25, LV 24 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: LV -0.037 against CHI -0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
