Raiders vs Bears – Week 7 2023
LV
CHI
LV
AWAY
12@30
CHI BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 12, Chicago Bears 30.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Raiders, 5 Bears.
Model confidence: LV 71%Our line: LV -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -7.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.097 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (19)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.042 (14)
41.2% (19)Offense success %41.8% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CHI won. Projected margin was 7.7, the model overestimated by 25.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
CHI
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Aidan O'Connell2218 yd · 12 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@LVW4 2025 | CHI 25, LV 24 | LV | L |
| CHI@LVW5 2021 | CHI 20, LV 9 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs CHI
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 7.7. The market has LV at -2.5.
Chicago Bears won, LV 12, CHI 30. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -2.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 7, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 7.0 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 25, LV 24 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: LV -0.037 against CHI -0.007.
