2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ LV – Week 4 2025
CHI
LV
CHI
AWAY
25@24
CHI +1
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 61%Projected margin: 2.0
LV
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
2.0
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CHI won. Projected margin was 2.0 -- the model overestimated by 3.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2SEASON PPR
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@CHIW7 2023 | LV 12, CHI 30 | LV | L |
| CHI@LVW5 2021 | CHI 20, LV 9 | LV | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES