Bears vs Raiders – Week 4 2025
CHI
LV
CHI
AWAY
25@24
CHI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 25, Las Vegas Raiders 24.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bears, 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 61%Our line: LV -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -3.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.080 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.215 (32)
+0.018 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (21)
45.8% (9)Offense success %37.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CHI won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 4.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@CHIW7 2023 | LV 12, CHI 30 | LV | L |
| CHI@LVW5 2021 | CHI 20, LV 9 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 3.9. The market has LV at -1.5.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 25, LV 24. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -1.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 4, the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 1.9 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Chicago Bears, LV 12, CHI 30 in Week 7 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.061 against LV -0.240.
