Saints vs Bills – Week 4 2025
NO
BUF
NO
AWAY
19@31
BUF BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 19, Buffalo Bills 31.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 84% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 84%Our line: BUF -13.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -15.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -13.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.029Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.136 (3)
-0.059 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.016 (13)
42.0% (26)Offense success %48.5% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 13.4. Actual: 12 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NOW12 2021 | BUF 31, NO 6 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 84% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 13.4. The market has BUF at -15.5.
Buffalo Bills won, NO 19, BUF 31. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 84% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -15.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 15.5 points.
In Week 4, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 1.1 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 31, NO 6 in Week 12 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: NO -0.029 against BUF +0.152.
