2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ BUF – Week 4 2025
NO
BUF
NO
AWAY
19@31
BUF +12
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 84%Projected margin: 13.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
-15.5
SPREAD
13.0
PROJ MARGIN
-931
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 13.0. Actual: 12 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -15.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -931 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.11 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NOW12 2021 | BUF 31, NO 6 | BUF | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES