NO @ BUF – Week 4 2025
NO
BUF
NO
AWAY
19@31
BUF BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 84%Our line: BUF -13.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-15.5
MARKET SPREAD
-13.4
OUR LINE
-527
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.029Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.088Offense EPA / play+0.136
-0.059Defense EPA / play-0.016
42.0%Offense success %48.5%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 13.4. Actual: 12 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +800 | -1350 |
| Our fair price | +527 | -527 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -15.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.11
OUR NUMBER
84%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
89%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0 SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9 SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
T.Shough2384 yd · 10 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
A.Kamara471 yd · 1 TD
D.Neal206 yd · 2 TD
A.Estime198 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
C.Olave100 rec · 1163 yd · 9 TD
J.Johnson77 rec · 889 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NOW12 2021 | BUF 31, NO 6 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 84% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 13.4. The market has BUF at -15.5.
The model projects 47.4 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 31, NO 6 in Week 12 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: NO -0.029 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
