WAS @ ATL – Week 4 2025
WAS
ATL
WAS
AWAY
27@34
ATL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 61%Our line: WAS -3.6
WAS
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.6
OUR LINE
-154
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.005Offense EPA / play-0.021
+0.142Defense EPA / play-0.004
45.6%Offense success %43.7%
47.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.6, the model overestimated by 10.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | WAS | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +120 | -142 |
| Our fair price | -154 | +154 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
44%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2 SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3 SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
M.Mariota1695 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Croskey-Merritt805 yd · 8 TD
C.Rodriguez500 yd · 6 TD
M.Mariota297 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
D.Samuel72 rec · 727 yd · 5 TD
T.McLaurin38 rec · 582 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@WASW17 2024 | ATL 24, WAS 30 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ATLW6 2023 | WAS 24, ATL 16 | ATL | L |
| ATL@WASW12 2022 | ATL 13, WAS 19 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ATLW4 2021 | WAS 34, ATL 30 | WAS | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 3.6. The market has WAS at +2.5.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, ATL 24, WAS 30 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: WAS -0.137 against ATL -0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
