Commanders vs Falcons – Week 4 2025
WAS
ATL
WAS
AWAY
27@34
ATL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 27, Atlanta Falcons 34.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Commanders, 3 Falcons.
Model confidence: WAS 61%Our line: WAS -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -3.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.005 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (24)
+0.142 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.004 (15)
45.6% (10)Offense success %43.7% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.6, the model overestimated by 10.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@WASW17 2024 | ATL 24, WAS 30 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ATLW6 2023 | WAS 24, ATL 16 | ATL | L |
| ATL@WASW12 2022 | ATL 13, WAS 19 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ATLW4 2021 | WAS 34, ATL 30 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs ATL
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 3.6. The market has WAS at +2.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, WAS 27, ATL 34. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at +2.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Washington Commanders were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 2.2 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, ATL 24, WAS 30 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: WAS -0.137 against ATL -0.018.
