2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ ATL – Week 4 2025
WAS
ATL
WAS
AWAY
27@34
ATL +7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: WAS
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: WAS 61%Projected margin: -1.2
WAS
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.2
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but ATL won. Projected margin was 1.2 -- the model overestimated by 8.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | WAS market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +143 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4SEASON PPR
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@WASW17 2024 | ATL 24, WAS 30 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ATLW6 2023 | WAS 24, ATL 16 | ATL | L |
| ATL@WASW12 2022 | ATL 13, WAS 19 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ATLW4 2021 | WAS 34, ATL 30 | WAS | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES