Vikings vs Steelers – Week 4 2025
MIN
PIT
MIN
AWAY
21@24
PIT BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 21, Pittsburgh Steelers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Vikings, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 59%Our line: PIT -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.116 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.025 (16)
-0.100 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (18)
42.6% (23)Offense success %44.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 3.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@MINW14 2021 | PIT 28, MIN 36 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.2. The market has PIT at +2.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, MIN 21, PIT 24. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Minnesota Vikings were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 3.3 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Minnesota Vikings, PIT 28, MIN 36 in Week 14 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: MIN -0.016 against PIT +0.007.
