JAX @ SF – Week 4 2025
JAX
SF
JAX
AWAY
26@21
JAX BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 64%Our line: SF -4.9
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.9
OUR LINE
-179
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.030Offense EPA / play+0.088
-0.105Defense EPA / play+0.070
44.4%Offense success %48.3%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but JAX won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +150 | -180 |
| Our fair price | +179 | -179 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2 SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9 SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@JAXW10 2023 | SF 34, JAX 3 | JAX | L |
| SF@JAXW11 2021 | SF 30, JAX 10 | SF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 4.9. The market has SF at -3.5.
The model projects 44.2 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 34, JAX 3 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
