2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ SF – Week 4 2025
JAX
SF
JAX
AWAY
26@21
JAX +5
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER C
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 64%Projected margin: 2.8
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but JAX won. Projected margin was 2.8 -- the model overestimated by 7.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
SF
C.McCaffrey
RB
416.6SEASON PPR
B.Purdy
QB
177.4SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@JAXW10 2023 | SF 34, JAX 3 | JAX | L |
| SF@JAXW11 2021 | SF 30, JAX 10 | SF | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES