Jaguars vs 49ers – Week 4 2025
JAX
SF
JAX
AWAY
26@21
JAX BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 26, San Francisco 49ers 21.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jaguars, 2 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 64%Our line: SF -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.030 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.088 (6)
-0.105 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (24)
44.4% (15)Offense success %48.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but JAX won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@JAXW10 2023 | SF 34, JAX 3 | JAX | L |
| SF@JAXW11 2021 | SF 30, JAX 10 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 4.9. The market has SF at -3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 26, SF 21. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 1.3 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 34, JAX 3 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against SF +0.018.
