NFL WEEK 4 2025 PREDICTIONS & PICKS
16 GAMESUPDATED JUL 4, 2026
THE SHORT ANSWER
NoPunt went 10-5-1 straight up in Week 4 2025.
The most confident pick, the Buffalo Bills at 84%, won 31-19.
Our most confident Week 4 pick is the Buffalo Bills over the New Orleans Saints, at 84% win probability.
1 of 16 games on the Week 4 slate is effective coin flips, under 55% win probability.
Before kickoff
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WHAT WE GOT WRONG
Our highest-probability miss this week: the Los Angeles Chargers at 76% win probability lost 18-21.
The C-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 4-3 (57%) against a 58% all-time rate.
PROEvery pick's read, side, tier, win probability, spread, is free. The Edge (the games we flag as bets) and Kelly sizing are Pro.
FILTER
QUESTIONS
Our safest Week 4 2025 pick is the Buffalo Bills over the New Orleans Saints, at 84% win probability.
1 of 16 games in Week 4 2025 are effective coin flips on our model, under 55% win probability.
NoPunt's model picks every game of Week 4, 2025, tier-graded from S (strongest) to C, with a win probability, predicted margin and spread for each. See the full slate on this page.
NoPunt went 10-5-1 straight up in Week 4 2025.
Our highest-probability miss this week: the Los Angeles Chargers at 76% win probability lost 18-21. The C-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 4-3 (57%) against a 58% all-time rate.