Falcons vs Buccaneers – Week 7 2023
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
16@13
ATL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 16, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: TB 67%Our line: TB -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.040Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.099 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (14)
-0.059 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.024 (18)
41.1% (20)Offense success %39.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but ATL won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.1. The market has TB at -3.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 16, TB 13. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 8.4 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ATL -0.040 against TB +0.007.
