2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ TB – Week 7 2023
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
16@13
ATL +3
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 67%Projected margin: 3.4
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
3.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.4 -- the model overestimated by 6.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Lost · -$1.00 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
174.4SEASON PPR
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES