ATL @ TB – Week 7 2023
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
16@13
ATL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 67%Our line: TB -6.1
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.1
OUR LINE
-207
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.040Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.099Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.059Defense EPA / play-0.024
41.1%Offense success %39.6%
39.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but ATL won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | +207 | -207 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3 SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1 SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
174.4 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Bijan Robinson976 yd · 4 TD
Tyler Allgeier683 yd · 4 TD
Desmond Ridder193 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Drake London69 rec · 905 yd · 2 TD
Kyle Pitts53 rec · 667 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.1. The market has TB at -3.0.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ATL -0.040 against TB +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
