JAX @ NO – Week 7 2023
JAX
NO
JAX
AWAY
31@24
JAX BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 64%Our line: JAX -4.8
JAX
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-178
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.086
-0.070Offense EPA / play-0.014
-0.036Defense EPA / play-0.100
42.1%Offense success %42.1%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 4.8. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | -178 | +178 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
43%
DIFFERENCE
+21%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5 SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
230.3 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Trevor Lawrence4016 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Travis Etienne1008 yd · 11 TD
Trevor Lawrence339 yd · 4 TD
Tank Bigsby132 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley76 rec · 1016 yd · 8 TD
Evan Engram114 rec · 963 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 4.8. The market has JAX at +2.5.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: JAX -0.034 against NO +0.086.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
