Jaguars vs Saints – Week 7 2023
JAX
NO
JAX
AWAY
31@24
JAX BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 31, New Orleans Saints 24.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jaguars, 5 Saints.
Model confidence: JAX 64%Our line: JAX -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.086
-0.070 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.014 (13)
-0.036 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (5)
42.1% (15)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 4.8. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs NO
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 4.8. The market has JAX at +2.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 31, NO 24. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +2.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 7, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 5.7 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: JAX -0.034 against NO +0.086.
