Browns vs Colts – Week 7 2023
CLE
IND
CLE
AWAY
39@38
CLE BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 39, Indianapolis Colts 38.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: CLE 58%Our line: CLE -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -2.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.019
-0.141 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (16)
-0.186 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (21)
38.9% (29)Offense success %40.8% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CLE by 2.7. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
No noteworthy trends
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@CLEW5 2020 | IND 23, CLE 32 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs IND
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 2.7. The market has CLE at -3.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 39, IND 38. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -3.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 7, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 5.6 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, IND 23, CLE 32 in Week 5 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.045 against IND -0.019.
