2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ MIN – Week 7 2023
SF
MIN
SF
AWAY
17@22
MIN +5
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 68%Projected margin: -4.0
SF
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-4.0
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but MIN won. Projected margin was 4.0 -- the model overestimated by 9.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -325 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
391.3SEASON PPR
Brock Purdy
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
249.2SEASON PPR
MIN
Jordan Addison
WR
221.3SEASON PPR
T.J. Hockenson
TE
219.0SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@MINW2 2024 | SF 17, MIN 23 | SF | L |
| MIN@SFW12 2021 | MIN 26, SF 34 | MIN | L |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES