49ers vs Vikings – Week 7 2023
SF
MIN
SF
AWAY
17@22
MIN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 7
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 17, Minnesota Vikings 22.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 49ers, 1 Vikings.
Model confidence: SF 68%Our line: SF -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -6.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.255Net EPA / play-0.023
+0.174 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.041 (17)
-0.082 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (20)
51.1% (1)Offense success %42.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but MIN won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 11.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@MINW2 2024 | SF 17, MIN 23 | SF | L |
| MIN@SFW12 2021 | MIN 26, SF 34 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs MIN
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 6.1. The market has SF at -7.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, SF 17, MIN 22. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -7.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 7, the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 0.7 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, SF 17, MIN 23 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against MIN -0.023.
