Dolphins vs Steelers – Week 15 2025
MIA
PIT
MIA
AWAY
15@28
PIT BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 15, Pittsburgh Steelers 28.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 3 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 59%Our line: PIT -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.017 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.025 (16)
+0.088 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (18)
41.9% (27)Offense success %44.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 13. Off by 9.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
COLD GAME
17°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
17°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@MIAW7 2022 | PIT 10, MIA 16 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.1. The market has PIT at -3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, MIA 15, PIT 28. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 3.0 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Miami Dolphins, PIT 10, MIA 16 in Week 7 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: MIA -0.105 against PIT +0.007.
