MIA @ PIT – Week 15 2025
MIA
PIT
MIA
AWAY
15@28
PIT BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 59%Our line: PIT -3.1
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-144
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.017Offense EPA / play+0.025
+0.088Defense EPA / play+0.018
41.9%Offense success %44.0%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 13. Off by 9.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
COLD GAME
17°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +145 | -175 |
| Our fair price | +144 | -144 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
17°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8 SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1 SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@MIAW7 2022 | PIT 10, MIA 16 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.1. The market has PIT at -3.0.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Miami Dolphins, PIT 10, MIA 16 in Week 7 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: MIA -0.105 against PIT +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
