LV @ PHI – Week 15 2025
LV
PHI
LV
AWAY
0@31
PHI BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 84%Our line: PHI -13.2
PHI
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-13.2
OUR LINE
-508
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.105
-0.215Offense EPA / play+0.026
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.079
37.6%Offense success %43.1%
45.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 13.2. Actual: 31. Off by 17.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds and 30°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +650 | -1000 |
| Our fair price | +508 | -508 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
84%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
No noteworthy trends
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
30°F
WIND
20 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1 SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2 SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 84% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PHI by 13.2. The market has PHI at -12.5.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, PHI 22, LV 33 in Week 7 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: LV -0.240 against PHI +0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
