Bengals vs Ravens – Week 11 2023
CIN
BAL
CIN
AWAY
20@34
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 20, Baltimore Ravens 34.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bengals, 3 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 60%Our line: BAL -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.044Net EPA / play+0.215
-0.010 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.066 (5)
+0.034 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.149 (2)
44.0% (10)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 14. Off by 10.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW2 2023 | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.4. The market has BAL at -4.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, CIN 20, BAL 34. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -4.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 11, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 0.3 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: CIN -0.044 against BAL +0.215.
