2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ JAX – Week 11 2023
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
14@34
JAX +20
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 76%Projected margin: 7.6
JAX
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
7.6
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 20. Off by 12.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -290 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
153.8SEASON PPR
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES