Titans vs Jaguars – Week 11 2023
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
14@34
JAX BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 14, Jacksonville Jaguars 34.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Titans, 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 76%Our line: JAX -9.6
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -9.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.055Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.047 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.070 (21)
+0.007 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.036 (16)
39.7% (26)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 9.6. Actual: 20. Off by 10.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project JAX by 9.6. The market has JAX at -6.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, TEN 14, JAX 34. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -6.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 11, the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 5.3 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: TEN -0.055 against JAX -0.034.
