Cardinals vs Texans – Week 11 2023
ARI
HOU
ARI
AWAY
16@21
HOU BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 16, Houston Texans 21.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Cardinals, 5 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 72%Our line: HOU -8.0
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -8.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.157Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.071 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (15)
+0.085 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (13)
40.5% (25)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 8.0. Actual: 5. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@HOUW15 2025 | ARI 20, HOU 40 | HOU | W |
| HOU@ARIW7 2021 | HOU 5, ARI 31 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project HOU by 8.0. The market has HOU at -5.5.
Houston Texans won, ARI 16, HOU 21. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -5.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 11, the Arizona Cardinals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 2.3 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, ARI 20, HOU 40 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: ARI -0.157 against HOU +0.014.
