ARI @ HOU – Week 11 2023
ARI
HOU
ARI
AWAY
16@21
HOU BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 72%Our line: HOU -8.0
HOU
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.0
OUR LINE
-263
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.157Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.071Offense EPA / play-0.028
+0.085Defense EPA / play-0.043
40.5%Offense success %40.9%
47.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 8.0. Actual: 5. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +205 | -250 |
| Our fair price | +263 | -263 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5 SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5 SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
146.4 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
Marquise Brown51 rec · 574 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@HOUW15 2025 | ARI 20, HOU 40 | HOU | W |
| HOU@ARIW7 2021 | HOU 5, ARI 31 | ARI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project HOU by 8.0. The market has HOU at -5.5.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, ARI 20, HOU 40 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: ARI -0.157 against HOU +0.014.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
