2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ HOU – Week 11 2023
ARI
HOU
ARI
AWAY
16@21
HOU +5
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER A
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 72%Projected margin: 6.7
HOU
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
6.7
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 6.7. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -250 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
146.4SEASON PPR
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@HOUW15 2025 | ARI 20, HOU 40 | HOU | W |
| HOU@ARIW7 2021 | HOU 5, ARI 31 | ARI | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES