Buccaneers vs 49ers – Week 11 2023
TB
SF
TB
AWAY
14@27
SF BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14, San Francisco 49ers 27.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Buccaneers, 2 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 72%Our line: SF -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -7.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.255
-0.017 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.174 (1)
-0.024 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.082 (7)
39.6% (27)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 13. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW6 2025 | SF 19, TB 30 | TB | W |
| SF@TBW10 2024 | SF 23, TB 20 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW14 2022 | TB 7, SF 35 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project SF by 7.9. The market has SF at -13.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, TB 14, SF 27. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -13.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 11, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 4.9 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, SF 19, TB 30 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: TB +0.007 against SF +0.255.
