2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ SF – Week 11 2023
TB
SF
TB
AWAY
14@27
SF +13
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER A
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 72%Projected margin: 6.8
SF
PICK SIDE
-13.5
SPREAD
6.8
PROJ MARGIN
-698
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 13. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -698 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -950 | Won · +$0.14 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
No noteworthy trends
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9SEASON PPR
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
391.3SEASON PPR
Brock Purdy
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW6 2025 | SF 19, TB 30 | TB | W |
| SF@TBW10 2024 | SF 23, TB 20 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW14 2022 | TB 7, SF 35 | SF | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES