Buccaneers vs 49ers – Week 14 2022
TB
SF
TB
AWAY
7@35
SF BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7, San Francisco 49ers 35.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers, 3 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 63%Our line: SF -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.013Net EPA / play+0.211
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.085 (4)
-0.025 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.126 (1)
43.8% (20)Offense success %46.2% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 28. Off by 23.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW6 2025 | SF 19, TB 30 | TB | W |
| SF@TBW10 2024 | SF 23, TB 20 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW11 2023 | TB 14, SF 27 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.5. The market has SF at -3.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, TB 7, SF 35. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 14, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 9.5 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, SF 19, TB 30 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: TB -0.013 against SF +0.211.
