2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ SF – Week 14 2022
TB
SF
TB
AWAY
7@35
SF +28
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: SF 63%Projected margin: 3.1
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 28. Off by 24.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -196 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4SEASON PPR
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
238.4SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW6 2025 | SF 19, TB 30 | TB | W |
| SF@TBW10 2024 | SF 23, TB 20 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW11 2023 | TB 14, SF 27 | SF | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES