TB @ SF – Week 14 2022
TB
SF
TB
AWAY
7@35
SF BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 63%Our line: SF -4.5
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-171
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.013Net EPA / play+0.211
-0.038Offense EPA / play+0.085
-0.025Defense EPA / play-0.126
43.8%Offense success %46.2%
42.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 28. Off by 23.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +175 | -196 |
| Our fair price | +171 | -171 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
65%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette668 yd · 3 TD
Rachaad White481 yd · 1 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn53 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
Chris Godwin Jr.104 rec · 1023 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW6 2025 | SF 19, TB 30 | TB | W |
| SF@TBW10 2024 | SF 23, TB 20 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW11 2023 | TB 14, SF 27 | SF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.5. The market has SF at -3.5.
The model projects 47.5 combined points. The market total is 38.0.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, SF 19, TB 30 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: TB -0.013 against SF +0.211.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
