Raiders vs Rams – Week 14 2022
LV
LA
LV
AWAY
16@17
LA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 16, Los Angeles Rams 17.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Raiders, 4 Rams.
Model confidence: LV 69%Our line: LV -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -6.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.000 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (29)
+0.064 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (24)
43.1% (21)Offense success %41.0% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but LA won. Projected margin was 6.7, the model overestimated by 7.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr3522 yd · 24 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs LA
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 6.7. The market has LV at -6.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, LV 16, LA 17. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -6.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 14, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 2.6 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LV 15, LA 20 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.064 against LA -0.105.
