Chiefs vs Broncos – Week 14 2022
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
34@28
KC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 34, Denver Broncos 28.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Broncos.
Model confidence: KC 80%Our line: KC -11.4
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -11.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.204Net EPA / play-0.060
+0.186 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (30)
-0.019 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (9)
50.4% (1)Offense success %38.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 11.4. Actual: 6. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs DEN
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 11.4. The market has KC at -8.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 34, DEN 28. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -8.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 14, the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.2, 4.7 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.204 against DEN -0.060.
