KC @ DEN – Week 14 2022
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
34@28
KC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: KC 80%Our line: KC -11.4
KC
PICK SIDE
-8.5
MARKET SPREAD
-11.4
OUR LINE
-401
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.204Net EPA / play-0.060
+0.186Offense EPA / play-0.109
-0.019Defense EPA / play-0.049
50.4%Offense success %38.1%
42.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 11.4. Actual: 6. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -394 | +329 |
| Our fair price | -401 | +401 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -8.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.29
OUR NUMBER
80%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4 SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3 SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
196.3 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
Patrick Mahomes5250 yd · 41 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Isiah Pacheco830 yd · 5 TD
Patrick Mahomes358 yd · 4 TD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire302 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Travis Kelce110 rec · 1338 yd · 12 TD
JuJu Smith-Schuster
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 11.4. The market has KC at -8.5.
The model projects 49.2 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 20, KC 13 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.204 against DEN -0.060.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
