Vikings vs Lions – Week 14 2022
MIN
DET
MIN
AWAY
23@34
DET BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 23, Detroit Lions 34.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 4 Lions.
Model confidence: MIN 62%Our line: MIN -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -4.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.006
-0.011 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (6)
+0.012 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (30)
44.9% (13)Offense success %45.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but DET won. Projected margin was 4.1, the model overestimated by 15.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DET
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.1. The market has MIN at +2.5.
Detroit Lions won, MIN 23, DET 34. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at +2.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 14, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 3.3 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Detroit Lions: MIN -0.023 against DET -0.006.
