Jets vs Bills – Week 14 2022
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
12@20
BUF BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 12, Buffalo Bills 20.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 73%Our line: BUF -8.3
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -8.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.036Net EPA / play+0.168
-0.087 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.116 (2)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.052 (7)
39.0% (30)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 8.3. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 8.3. The market has BUF at -10.0.
Buffalo Bills won, NYJ 12, BUF 20. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -10.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 14, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 2.6 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: NYJ -0.036 against BUF +0.168.
