2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ BUF – Week 14 2022
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
12@20
BUF +8
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 73%Projected margin: 7.3
BUF
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
7.3
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 7.3. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -398 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
RB
126.0SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
395.5SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
316.6SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES