MIA @ LAC – Week 14 2022
MIA
LAC
MIA
AWAY
17@23
LAC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 63%Our line: MIA -4.5
MIA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-172
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.039Net EPA / play+0.001
+0.047Offense EPA / play+0.007
+0.008Defense EPA / play+0.006
44.5%Offense success %44.1%
42.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but LAC won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -163 | +146 |
| Our fair price | -172 | +172 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2 SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2 SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
Jaylen Waddle75 rec · 1356 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MIAW6 2025 | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC | W |
| MIA@LACW1 2023 | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC | L |
| LAC@MIAW10 2020 | LAC 21, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.5. The market has MIA at -3.0.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 54.5.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 29, MIA 27 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.039 against LAC +0.001.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
