Dolphins vs Chargers – Week 14 2022
MIA
LAC
MIA
AWAY
17@23
LAC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 17, Los Angeles Chargers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 4 Chargers.
Model confidence: MIA 63%Our line: MIA -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.039Net EPA / play+0.001
+0.047 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (13)
+0.008 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (19)
44.5% (16)Offense success %44.1% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but LAC won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MIAW6 2025 | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC | W |
| MIA@LACW1 2023 | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC | L |
| LAC@MIAW10 2020 | LAC 21, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs LAC
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.5. The market has MIA at -3.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, MIA 17, LAC 23. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -3.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 7.6 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 29, MIA 27 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.039 against LAC +0.001.
