2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ LAC – Week 14 2022
MIA
LAC
MIA
AWAY
17@23
LAC +6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 63%Projected margin: -3.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but LAC won. Projected margin was 3.1 -- the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -163 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9SEASON PPR
LAC
Austin Ekeler
RB
372.7SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
281.3SEASON PPR
Mike Williams
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MIAW6 2025 | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC | W |
| MIA@LACW1 2023 | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC | L |
| LAC@MIAW10 2020 | LAC 21, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES