Bills vs Jets – Week 6 2024
BUF
NYJ
BUF
AWAY
23@20
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 23, New York Jets 20.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 1 Jets.
Model confidence: BUF 67%Our line: BUF -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.197Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.189 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (17)
-0.009 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
47.5% (7)Offense success %42.6% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 6.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 3.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW1 2023 | BUF 16, NYJ 22 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NYJ
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.0. The market has BUF at -1.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 23, NYJ 20. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -1.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 6, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 3.8 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against NYJ -0.037.
