Commanders vs Ravens – Week 6 2024
WAS
BAL
WAS
AWAY
23@30
BAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 23, Baltimore Ravens 30.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders, 3 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 71%Our line: BAL -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.128Net EPA / play+0.269
+0.139 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.218 (1)
+0.011 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
48.5% (4)Offense success %50.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 7.4. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
No noteworthy trends
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@WASW4 2020 | BAL 31, WAS 17 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.4. The market has BAL at -6.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, WAS 23, BAL 30. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -6.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 6, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 4.8 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 31, WAS 17 in Week 4 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: WAS +0.128 against BAL +0.269.
