2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ DEN – Week 6 2024
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
23@16
LAC +7
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 65%Projected margin: 4.3
DEN
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
4.3
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but LAC won. Projected margin was 4.3 -- the model overestimated by 11.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +130 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
191.8SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW14 2023 | DEN 24, LAC 7 | LAC | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES