Chargers vs Broncos – Week 6 2024
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
23@16
LAC BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Denver Broncos 16.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chargers, 3 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 65%Our line: DEN -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -5.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.100Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.039 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.020 (14)
-0.061 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (1)
42.0% (20)Offense success %42.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but LAC won. Projected margin was 5.1, the model overestimated by 12.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN | W |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 5.1. The market has DEN at +3.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 23, DEN 16. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at +3.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 6, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 8.2 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 23, LAC 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: LAC +0.100 against DEN +0.138.
