DEN @ KC – Week 1 2026
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 1 · 2026 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: DEN
Model confidence: DEN 76%Projected margin: -7.5
DEN
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-7.5
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
+124
LIVE ML
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on DEN at 76% confidence.
HIGH CONVICTION
DEN is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
DEN has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against KC.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.5-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in DEN's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | +124 | Last observed market ML |
MODEL IMPLIED
39.4%
MARKET IMPLIED
44.6%
MODEL EDGE
-5.3%
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
