Bears vs Panthers – Week 1 2026
CHI
CAR
CHI
AWAY
59@37
CHI BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers.
Model confidence: CHI 65%Our line: CHI -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
+0.008Net EPA / play+0.087
+0.023 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.115 (8)
+0.015 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.028 (21)
46.1% (11)Offense success %44.1%
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 22. Off by 16.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
T.Bagent409 yd · 0 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@CHIW5 2024 | CAR 10, CHI 36 | CHI | W |
| CAR@CHIW10 2023 | CAR 13, CHI 16 | CHI | W |
| CHI@CARW6 2020 | CHI 23, CAR 16 | CAR | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs CAR
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 5.2. The market has CHI at -3.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 59, CAR 37. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -3.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 1.8 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CAR 10, CHI 36 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Carolina Panthers: CHI +0.008 against CAR +0.087.
