CLE @ JAX – Week 1 2026
CLE
JAX
CLE
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 1 · 2026 SEASON
JAX
HOME
OUR PICK
TIER A+
PICK: JAX
Model confidence: JAX 79%Projected margin: -9.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-9.9
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
-380
LIVE ML
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on JAX at 79% confidence.
HIGH CONVICTION
JAX is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
OVER EDGE
Model projects 44.6 total points vs the 40.5 line. That's a 4.1-point over edge.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.9-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Net-positive signal profile for JAX. Grade: A+.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | -380 | Last observed market ML |
MODEL IMPLIED
74.6%
MARKET IMPLIED
79.2%
MODEL EDGE
-4.5%
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@JAXW2 2024 | CLE 18, JAX 13 | CLE | W |
| JAX@CLEW14 2023 | JAX 27, CLE 31 | JAX | L |
| CLE@JAXW12 2020 | CLE 27, JAX 25 | CLE | W |
