Browns vs Jaguars – Week 1 2026
CLE
JAX
CLE
AWAY
10@34
JAX BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns.
Model confidence: JAX 79%Our line: JAX -10.9
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.058Net EPA / play+0.239
-0.080 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (6)
-0.022 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (3)
39.1% (28)Offense success %46.9% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 10.9. Actual: 24. Off by 13.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
D.Watson1010 yd · 7 TD · 2 INT
RECEIVING
D.Boston16 rec · 330 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@JAXW2 2024 | CLE 18, JAX 13 | CLE | W |
| JAX@CLEW14 2023 | JAX 27, CLE 31 | JAX | L |
| CLE@JAXW12 2020 | CLE 27, JAX 25 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project JAX by 10.9. The market has JAX at -8.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, CLE 10, JAX 34. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -8.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 1, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 4.1 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 18, JAX 13 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: CLE -0.058 against JAX +0.239.
