CLE @ JAX – Week 12 2020
CLE
JAX
CLE
AWAY
27@25
CLE BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 67%Our line: CLE -6.0
CLE
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-205
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.204
+0.088Offense EPA / play-0.059
+0.077Defense EPA / play+0.145
46.6%Offense success %41.5%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 2. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -334 | +284 |
| Our fair price | -205 | +205 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CLE
Baker Mayfield
QB
248.6 SEASON PPR
Kareem Hunt
RB
218.5 SEASON PPR
Nick Chubb
RB
207.7 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Baker Mayfield3563 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Nick Chubb1067 yd · 12 TD
Kareem Hunt841 yd · 6 TD
D'Ernest Johnson166 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jarvis Landry72 rec · 840 yd · 3 TD
Rashard Higgins37 rec · 599 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@JAXW2 2024 | CLE 18, JAX 13 | CLE | W |
| JAX@CLEW14 2023 | JAX 27, CLE 31 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.0. The market has CLE at -7.5.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 18, JAX 13 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.011 against JAX -0.204.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
