Browns vs Jaguars – Week 12 2020
CLE
JAX
CLE
AWAY
27@25
CLE BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 25.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns, 4 Jaguars.
Model confidence: CLE 67%Our line: CLE -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.204
+0.088 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (28)
+0.077 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.145 (30)
46.6% (9)Offense success %41.5% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 2. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@JAXW1 2026 | CLE 10, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
| CLE@JAXW2 2024 | CLE 18, JAX 13 | CLE | W |
| JAX@CLEW14 2023 | JAX 27, CLE 31 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs JAX
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.0. The market has CLE at -7.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 27, JAX 25. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -7.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 12, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 1.7 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, CLE 10, JAX 34 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.011 against JAX -0.204.
