Ravens vs Steelers – Week 12 2020
BAL
PIT
BAL
AWAY
14@19
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 14, Pittsburgh Steelers 19.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 60%Our line: PIT -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.180Net EPA / play+0.128
+0.120 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.010 (17)
-0.060 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (2)
45.8% (16)Offense success %43.2% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 3.6. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.6. The market has PIT at -10.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, BAL 14, PIT 19. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -10.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 12, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 5.8 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, WED 3:40 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.180 against PIT +0.128.
